ULTIMATE
ULTIMATE Daily Market Report
Last updated Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 3:31 PM Pacific

Daily market intelligence

ULTIMATE Daily Market Report

Generated automatically each market day

Model positioning

Market Risk Assessment

Current Market Assessment Moderately High Risk
Updated Daily
Lower Market Risk Higher Market Risk
Target Equity Exposure 36.1%
Current S&P 500 7,651.54

The model currently indicates a moderately high risk market environment.

The display communicates the model’s current positioning without publishing its proprietary calculations, decision rules, or trigger levels.

ETF conditions

ETF Signal Dashboard

Exceptionally Strong / Strong 8
Moderate / Neutral 84
Weak / Exceptionally Weak 8

ETF Rankings — 3-Month Average ULTSCORE

Rank ETF Name Current ULTSCORE 3-Month Average ULTSCORE Current vs Avg
1 ITB iShares U.S. Home Construction 61.1 70.5 -9.4
2 IYR iShares U.S. Real Estate 49.6 65.8 -16.2
3 VNQ US REITs 49.5 65.8 -16.3
4 FREL Fidelity MSCI Real Estate 49.3 65.3 -15.9
5 XLRE Real Estate Select Sector SPDR 49.2 65.2 -16.0
6 USRT iShares Core U.S. REIT 48.8 65.0 -16.2
7 SCHH Schwab U.S. REIT 49.0 65.0 -16.0
8 VNQI Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate 54.4 64.5 -10.1
9 REET iShares Global REIT 52.0 63.4 -11.4
10 XRT SPDR S&P Retail 60.4 62.1 -1.7
11 XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR 60.8 61.4 -0.5
12 VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value 52.0 60.7 -8.7
13 SCHP Schwab U.S. TIPS 57.4 60.0 -2.7
14 TIP iShares TIPS Bond 57.3 59.9 -2.7
15 VCSH Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond 42.0 59.2 -17.2
16 SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity 61.9 58.9 +3.0
17 INDA iShares MSCI India 57.4 58.6 -1.2
18 XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 66.8 58.5 +8.3
19 VTV Vanguard Value 51.2 58.4 -7.2
20 XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR 62.1 58.3 +3.7
21 XLC Communication Services Select Sector SPDR 56.7 58.2 -1.5
22 IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value 50.7 58.1 -7.4
23 MCHI iShares MSCI China 55.5 57.8 -2.3
24 DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking 69.9 57.7 +12.2
25 PDBC Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy 69.7 57.5 +12.1
26 BCI abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free 69.8 57.5 +12.3
27 GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust 69.6 57.4 +12.2
28 COMT iShares GSCI Commodity Strategy 69.5 57.4 +12.1
29 FTGC First Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy 69.7 57.2 +12.5
30 KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking 63.8 57.0 +6.8
31 VB Vanguard Small-Cap 50.8 56.7 -5.9
32 USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor 51.9 56.5 -4.6
33 IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 50.9 56.5 -5.6
34 VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation 60.0 56.4 +3.6
35 VO Vanguard Mid-Cap 52.2 56.2 -4.0
36 SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap 57.4 56.0 +1.3
37 IWM Russell 2000 50.2 56.0 -5.7
38 MDY SPDR S&P MidCap 400 52.1 55.9 -3.9
39 VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap 56.9 55.6 +1.3
40 VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield 55.3 55.6 -0.2
41 VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe 57.8 55.3 +2.5
42 RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight 53.7 55.2 -1.5
43 XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 50.5 55.1 -4.6
44 VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets 58.8 54.9 +3.9
45 EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value 53.7 54.7 -1.0
46 JNK SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond 47.6 54.5 -6.9
47 XME SPDR S&P Metals and Mining 65.3 54.5 +10.8
48 HYG High Yield Credit 47.6 54.5 -6.9
49 VCIT Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond 34.4 54.4 -20.0
50 GLD Gold 64.1 54.1 +9.9
51 IAU iShares Gold Trust 64.1 54.1 +9.9
52 USO Oil 50.5 54.1 -3.5
53 SGOL abrdn Physical Gold Shares 64.0 54.0 +9.9
54 LQD Investment Grade Credit 32.9 53.8 -20.8
55 XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR 52.5 53.2 -0.7
56 EEM Emerging Markets 56.8 53.0 +3.8
57 MUB iShares National Muni Bond 37.1 52.5 -15.4
58 BND Vanguard Total Bond Market 34.5 52.4 -17.9
59 VUG Vanguard Growth 47.3 52.3 -5.0
60 AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond 34.4 52.3 -17.9
61 XBI SPDR S&P Biotech 35.9 52.2 -16.3
62 PAVE Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development 52.0 51.9 +0.1
63 IEMG iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets 55.7 51.9 +3.8
64 IBB iShares Biotechnology 37.8 51.3 -13.5
65 EFA iShares MSCI EAFE 62.0 50.7 +11.3
66 ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense 51.7 50.7 +1.0
67 QUAL iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor 54.9 50.5 +4.5
68 SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 42.6 50.3 -7.8
69 ACWX iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. 61.4 50.3 +11.1
70 VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US 61.4 50.3 +11.2
71 VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets 61.3 50.0 +11.2
72 EFG iShares MSCI EAFE Growth 54.6 49.9 +4.7
73 ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI 54.4 49.8 +4.6
74 IEFA iShares Core MSCI EAFE 61.2 49.7 +11.4
75 SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond 49.3 49.6 -0.3
76 VSGX Vanguard ESG International Stock 60.7 49.6 +11.1
77 BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill 49.2 49.5 -0.3
78 XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR 52.0 49.4 +2.6
79 VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock 60.6 49.4 +11.2
80 SCHF Schwab International Equity 60.4 49.2 +11.3
81 IXUS iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock 60.3 49.1 +11.2
82 EWJ iShares MSCI Japan 57.9 49.0 +8.9
83 VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market 54.0 48.9 +5.0
84 SPY S&P 500 53.7 48.8 +4.9
85 VYMI Vanguard International High Dividend Yield 60.1 48.7 +11.4
86 IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth 44.5 48.5 -4.0
87 BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond 42.1 48.4 -6.3
88 IGF iShares Global Infrastructure 52.8 47.9 +4.9
89 MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor 37.1 47.3 -10.2
90 XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR 59.4 47.1 +12.3
91 XPH SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals 53.8 46.4 +7.4
92 IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond 24.3 45.9 -21.6
93 XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 59.3 45.2 +14.1
94 QQQ Nasdaq 100 46.7 45.1 +1.6
95 GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond 22.8 44.9 -22.2
96 VGT Vanguard Information Technology 45.5 44.4 +1.1
97 XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR 45.1 44.0 +1.1
98 IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond 18.7 43.5 -24.8
99 SMH VanEck Semiconductor 45.1 41.7 +3.4
100 TLT 20+ Year Treasuries 13.5 40.9 -27.4
Exceptionally Strong ETFs 0

No exceptionally strong ETFs.

Strong ETFs 8
ETF Name ULTSCORE 1-Month Avg 3-Month Avg 6-Month Avg
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking 69.9 64.8 57.7 60.0
BCI abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free 69.8 64.6 57.5 59.6
FTGC First Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy 69.7 64.6 57.2 59.4
PDBC Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy 69.7 64.6 57.5 59.8
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust 69.6 64.5 57.4 59.7
COMT iShares GSCI Commodity Strategy 69.5 64.5 57.4 59.6
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 66.8 67.6 58.5 59.4
XME SPDR S&P Metals and Mining 65.3 61.1 54.5 55.7
Moderately Favorable ETFs 35
ETF Name ULTSCORE 1-Month Avg 3-Month Avg 6-Month Avg
GLD Gold 64.1 55.6 54.1 48.1
IAU iShares Gold Trust 64.1 55.5 54.1 48.1
SGOL abrdn Physical Gold Shares 64.0 55.4 54.0 48.0
KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking 63.8 50.4 57.0 53.9
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR 62.1 52.6 58.3 55.9
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE 62.0 50.9 50.7 50.9
SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity 61.9 60.5 58.9 58.1
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US 61.4 50.4 50.3 50.5
ACWX iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. 61.4 50.4 50.3 50.5
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets 61.3 50.1 50.0 50.2
IEFA iShares Core MSCI EAFE 61.2 49.9 49.7 50.0
ITB iShares U.S. Home Construction 61.1 63.4 70.5 66.9
XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR 60.8 60.7 61.4 61.8
VSGX Vanguard ESG International Stock 60.7 49.6 49.6 49.9
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock 60.6 49.5 49.4 49.6
SCHF Schwab International Equity 60.4 49.3 49.2 49.4
XRT SPDR S&P Retail 60.4 60.9 62.1 62.8
IXUS iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock 60.3 49.1 49.1 49.3
VYMI Vanguard International High Dividend Yield 60.1 48.9 48.7 48.6
VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation 60.0 57.8 56.4 55.9
XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR 59.4 51.7 47.1 47.9
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR 59.3 50.8 45.2 47.3
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets 58.8 52.8 54.9 54.4
EWJ iShares MSCI Japan 57.9 49.0 49.0 49.1
VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe 57.8 50.0 55.3 54.4
INDA iShares MSCI India 57.4 58.7 58.6 58.1
SCHP Schwab U.S. TIPS 57.4 62.7 60.0 58.7
SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap 57.4 52.7 56.0 55.3
TIP iShares TIPS Bond 57.3 62.6 59.9 58.6
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap 56.9 52.2 55.6 54.7
EEM Emerging Markets 56.8 50.9 53.0 52.6
XLC Communication Services Select Sector SPDR 56.7 57.7 58.2 58.8
IEMG iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets 55.7 49.7 51.9 51.5
MCHI iShares MSCI China 55.5 57.6 57.8 57.0
VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield 55.3 56.3 55.6 54.4
Neutral ETFs 41
ETF Name ULTSCORE 1-Month Avg 3-Month Avg 6-Month Avg
QUAL iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor 54.9 50.5 50.5 51.6
EFG iShares MSCI EAFE Growth 54.6 47.5 49.9 50.3
VNQI Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate 54.4 54.8 64.5 59.5
ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI 54.4 51.6 49.8 51.3
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market 54.0 50.7 48.9 50.7
XPH SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals 53.8 48.8 46.4 47.5
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value 53.7 49.3 54.7 53.7
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight 53.7 55.4 55.2 54.8
SPY S&P 500 53.7 50.5 48.8 50.5
IGF iShares Global Infrastructure 52.8 48.3 47.9 48.5
XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR 52.5 55.2 53.2 53.6
VO Vanguard Mid-Cap 52.2 55.1 56.2 55.5
MDY SPDR S&P MidCap 400 52.1 55.1 55.9 55.1
VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value 52.0 58.2 60.7 59.1
PAVE Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development 52.0 54.3 51.9 52.3
XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR 52.0 51.9 49.4 48.6
REET iShares Global REIT 52.0 54.1 63.4 58.6
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor 51.9 52.8 56.5 55.5
ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense 51.7 53.4 50.7 51.2
VTV Vanguard Value 51.2 56.4 58.4 57.1
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 50.9 54.8 56.5 55.6
VB Vanguard Small-Cap 50.8 54.8 56.7 55.7
IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value 50.7 56.0 58.1 56.9
USO Oil 50.5 51.6 54.1 52.0
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR 50.5 56.1 55.1 53.2
IWM Russell 2000 50.2 54.2 56.0 55.0
IYR iShares U.S. Real Estate 49.6 55.6 65.8 60.5
VNQ US REITs 49.5 55.6 65.8 60.5
FREL Fidelity MSCI Real Estate 49.3 55.2 65.3 60.0
SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond 49.3 49.3 49.6 50.2
BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill 49.2 49.2 49.5 50.1
XLRE Real Estate Select Sector SPDR 49.2 55.1 65.2 59.8
SCHH Schwab U.S. REIT 49.0 54.9 65.0 59.7
USRT iShares Core U.S. REIT 48.8 54.9 65.0 59.7
JNK SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond 47.6 51.1 54.5 53.8
HYG High Yield Credit 47.6 51.1 54.5 53.8
VUG Vanguard Growth 47.3 50.4 52.3 53.6
QQQ Nasdaq 100 46.7 45.8 45.1 47.6
VGT Vanguard Information Technology 45.5 47.2 44.4 46.2
SMH VanEck Semiconductor 45.1 46.1 41.7 43.9
XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR 45.1 46.8 44.0 45.8
Moderately Unfavorable ETFs 8
ETF Name ULTSCORE 1-Month Avg 3-Month Avg 6-Month Avg
IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth 44.5 47.9 48.5 48.6
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 42.6 48.2 50.3 50.1
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond 42.1 45.2 48.4 48.3
VCSH Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond 42.0 51.9 59.2 57.5
IBB iShares Biotechnology 37.8 44.3 51.3 51.4
MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor 37.1 42.2 47.3 47.0
MUB iShares National Muni Bond 37.1 46.8 52.5 51.5
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech 35.9 44.1 52.2 51.8
Weak ETFs 6
ETF Name ULTSCORE 1-Month Avg 3-Month Avg 6-Month Avg
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market 34.5 45.6 52.4 51.1
AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond 34.4 45.5 52.3 51.1
VCIT Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond 34.4 46.3 54.4 52.9
LQD Investment Grade Credit 32.9 45.5 53.8 52.1
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond 24.3 44.1 45.9 47.3
GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond 22.8 43.1 44.9 46.5
Exceptionally Weak ETFs 2
ETF Name ULTSCORE 1-Month Avg 3-Month Avg 6-Month Avg
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond 18.7 41.5 43.5 45.3
TLT 20+ Year Treasuries 13.5 38.8 40.9 43.1

Individual equity analysis

ULTIMATE Public Equities

Public equities are ranked by ULTSCORE, the universal ULTIMATE 0–100 assessment of current investment attractiveness. ULTSCORE incorporates causal positioning, market confirmation, risk, liquidity, valuation, and other security-level considerations. Higher ULTSCORE values indicate stronger current alignment with the ULTIMATE methodology.

Rank Ticker Sector ULTSCORE ULTSCORE Classification
1 PRGO Health Care 67.1 Strong
2 SRPT Health Care 66.8 Strong
3 INSP Health Care 65.1 Strong
4 AMPH Health Care 64.4 Moderately Favorable
5 NEOG Health Care 64.4 Moderately Favorable
6 IT Consumer Discretionary 64.4 Moderately Favorable
7 ELV Health Care 64.3 Moderately Favorable
8 MDT Health Care 64.2 Moderately Favorable
9 ILMN Health Care 64.1 Moderately Favorable
10 ATEC Health Care 64.1 Moderately Favorable
11 SMMT Health Care 64.0 Moderately Favorable
12 ISRG Health Care 64.0 Moderately Favorable
13 PFE Health Care 63.9 Moderately Favorable
14 MKTX Finance 63.9 Moderately Favorable
15 BAH Consumer Discretionary 63.9 Moderately Favorable
16 RMD Health Care 63.8 Moderately Favorable
17 UHS Health Care 63.7 Moderately Favorable
18 ZTS Health Care 63.7 Moderately Favorable
19 SDGR Health Care 63.7 Moderately Favorable
20 LFST Health Care 63.6 Moderately Favorable

Showing 20 of 2361 securities.

Strategic infrastructure

ULTIMATE AI Infrastructure

The AI Infrastructure engine evaluates companies positioned within critical AI-enabling infrastructure, including semiconductors, networking, data centers, electrical systems, power generation, grid infrastructure, and related bottlenecks. Companies are ranked by ULTSCORE, the universal ULTIMATE 0–100 assessment of current investment attractiveness.

Rank Company Ticker Category ULTSCORE ULTSCORE Classification
1 Meta Platforms META Cloud / AI Data Centers 82.5 Exceptionally Strong
2 NVIDIA NVDA AI Semiconductors 81.7 Exceptionally Strong
3 Microsoft MSFT Cloud / AI Data Centers 80.7 Exceptionally Strong
4 Amazon AMZN Cloud / AI Data Centers 78.0 Strong
5 Oracle ORCL Cloud / AI Data Centers 77.8 Strong
6 Advanced Micro Devices AMD AI Semiconductors 77.7 Strong
7 Bloom Energy BE Data Center Power / Fuel Cells 77.4 Strong
8 Taiwan Semiconductor TSM Foundry 77.4 Strong
9 Arista Networks ANET Networking / Optical Interconnect 77.0 Strong
10 Vertiv VRT Data Center Power / Cooling 76.9 Strong
11 Super Micro Computer SMCI AI Servers / Systems 76.6 Strong
12 Alphabet / Google GOOGL Cloud / AI Data Centers 76.5 Strong
13 Marvell Technology MRVL Networking / Optical Interconnect 76.5 Strong
14 Lumentum LITE Networking / Optical Interconnect 76.0 Strong
15 Schneider Electric SBGSY Electrical Infrastructure 75.6 Strong
16 Dell Technologies DELL AI Servers / Systems 75.5 Strong
17 ASML Holding ASML Semiconductor Equipment 75.2 Strong
18 Constellation Energy CEG Nuclear / Power 75.1 Strong
19 Eaton ETN Electrical Infrastructure 75.0 Strong
20 Amphenol APH Networking / Optical Interconnect 74.6 Strong

Showing 20 of 40 companies.

Important Disclosures

This website is a decision-support and research interface. It does not guarantee returns or market turning points.

Portfolio outputs are model-driven and may differ from actual investment results. Historical and simulated results do not guarantee future performance.

For research and educational purposes only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice.